🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still